Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Calculator

Tip: enter opportunities (savings) as a negative impact.

EMV gives you the expected cost of risk - the average if the project ran many times. But it treats every risk as independent and hides the range: it cannot tell you the chance of a really bad quarter, or that two of your risks always hit together.

A Monte Carlo simulation samples all of it thousands of times to show the full distribution and the tail. Incertive builds that model from your actual plan and returns a contingency figure at the confidence level you choose.

What is Expected Monetary Value (EMV)?

Expected Monetary Value is a risk-quantification technique that multiplies the probability of a risk by its monetary impact, then sums across all risks. EMV = probability x impact. For a threat with a 30% chance of a $50,000 cost, the EMV is 0.30 x 50,000 = $15,000. Summed across your risk register, the total EMV is a data-driven estimate of the contingency reserve you should set aside.

How do I use EMV to set a contingency reserve?

The total EMV of your threats is the expected cost of risk, so it is a defensible starting point for a contingency budget. It represents the average outcome if the project ran many times: some risks hit, some do not. For risk-averse projects you may hold more than the EMV (closer to a P80 outcome), which a Monte Carlo simulation quantifies precisely.

What is the difference between EMV and a Monte Carlo simulation?

EMV gives you a single expected number by treating each risk independently and averaging. It cannot show the range of outcomes, the probability of a worst case, or how risks interact. A Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of scenarios sampling each risk, revealing the full distribution and tail risk. EMV is the quick estimate; Monte Carlo is the full picture.

Can EMV handle opportunities as well as threats?

Yes. Threats have a positive cost impact (they increase cost), and opportunities have a negative cost impact (they save money). Enter opportunity savings as a negative impact and the calculator nets them against threats to give a total expected value.

Why can AI not just do this for me?

A chatbot can explain EMV, but it will not reliably multiply and sum your specific numbers, and it gives a different answer each time. This calculator computes it exactly. Incertive goes further: it extracts the risks from your plan, models their correlations, and returns the probability distribution and a contingency figure at your chosen confidence level.