Example analysis

What an Incertive analysis looks like

Below is a worked example for an ERP System Migration — the same output you get for your own project. It is a fixed illustration; sign up to run a real analysis on your plan.

Success probability

CONDITIONAL GO

Range of outcomes (5,000 simulations)

On time & budget61%
Minor overrun26%
Major overrun13%

Top risk drivers

A sensitivity analysis ranks which variables move the outcome most — so you know where to focus.

Legacy data format compatibilityimpact 92
Staff training completion rateimpact 74
Parallel-run period resource drainimpact 58
Vendor support response timeimpact 41

Highest-impact recommendations

1

Run a legacy-data compatibility spike before commit

Legacy data format compatibility is the single highest-leverage risk. A two-week validation of the hardest 20% of records would move the success probability from 61% to an estimated 74%.

2

Front-load change management, not just training hours

Training completion rate is the second driver. Assigning a dedicated change lead and tying go-live to adoption milestones (not calendar dates) materially reduces the overrun tail.

3

Negotiate a defined vendor SLA before signing

Vendor support response time adds uncertainty you can remove contractually. A guaranteed response window narrows the range of outcomes with no additional project spend.

The full report unlocks for your own project

Sign up and run your plan to get plan variants, the complete sensitivity analysis, and an exportable report — in under 60 seconds.

Run My Own Analysis

Know before you commit

Describe your project in plain language and get this analysis for your own plan — success probability, top risks, and the improvements that matter most.

Evaluate My Project