Pressure-test the value-creation plan before you commit the capital
Deal theses and 100-day plans rest on assumptions that rarely all hold. Incertive quantifies the probability a value-creation initiative delivers on time, surfaces the risks that most threaten the return, and shows where operating partners should focus.
annual EBITDA growth a buyout now needs for a 2.5x return — up from ~5% in 2015; returns must come from operations, not multiple expansion
Source: Bain & Company, Global PE Report 2026of 2015 buyout returns came from multiple expansion — a tailwind that has now largely disappeared
Source: Bain & Company, Global PE Report 2026What Incertive quantifies for these projects
Value-creation plan assumptions
Synergy, pricing, and integration assumptions compound. Incertive models them as ranges to reveal how likely the plan is to hit its target — and the realistic downside.
Integration and carve-out execution
Post-close integration and carve-outs are frequent value leaks. A sensitivity analysis ranks the initiatives that most threaten the thesis.
Timeline and hold-period pressure
A compressed hold amplifies execution risk. The analysis shows how timeline pressure widens the range of outcomes on the return.
A worked example
Post-close pricing and systems initiative
An operating team plans a pricing uplift and an ERP consolidation in the first year post-close, with aggressive targets and a lean team.
Takeaway: The concurrent ERP consolidation is the largest risk to the pricing initiative. Sequencing them — and adding capacity for the systems work — protects the value-creation timeline the thesis depends on.
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