Bring quantified confidence to public-sector program decisions
Government IT and infrastructure programs face intense scrutiny and a poor track record on budget and schedule. Incertive turns your plan into a defensible success probability, with the risks and mitigations quantified — evidence you can put in front of stakeholders.
average budget overrun on large IT projects — while delivering 56% less value than predicted
Source: McKinsey & University of Oxfordannual U.S. federal IT spend that “too frequently” fails to deliver on time and on budget
Source: U.S. GAO High-Risk Series (2025)What Incertive quantifies for these projects
Requirements and scope volatility
Shifting requirements are a leading cause of public-sector overruns. Incertive models undefined scope as a quantified uncertainty rather than a fixed assumption.
Vendor and procurement timelines
Procurement cycles and vendor performance introduce delay risk. A sensitivity analysis ranks their impact on your delivery date.
Stakeholder and approval dependencies
Multiple approval gates and stakeholders compound schedule risk. The analysis shows how much they widen your range of outcomes.
A worked example
Agency case-management system replacement
An agency plans a two-year system replacement with partially defined requirements, a single prime vendor, and several approval gates.
Takeaway: Undefined requirements and the single-vendor dependency drive most of the risk. A discovery phase to firm up the hardest requirements, plus a defined vendor SLA, materially improves the odds before a dollar is committed to build.
Illustrative example. Sign up to run a real analysis on your own project.
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