For software & engineering leaders

Quantify delivery risk before you commit the roadmap

Software projects overrun budgets and miss scope at high rates. Incertive models the uncertainty in your plan and returns a success probability, the risks that most threaten delivery, and where to focus to improve your odds.

16.2%

of software projects fully succeed (on time, on budget, full scope); ~31% are cancelled outright

Source: Standish Group, CHAOS Report
189%

average final cost vs. the original estimate on challenged and failed software projects

Source: Standish Group, CHAOS Report

What Incertive quantifies for these projects

Scope and requirements volatility

Undefined or shifting requirements are a leading cause of overruns. Incertive models scope creep as a quantified uncertainty, not a fixed assumption.

Estimation and dependency risk

Optimistic estimates and hidden dependencies compound. A sensitivity analysis ranks which ones most threaten your delivery date.

Integration and third-party risk

Integrations and external APIs are frequent failure points. The analysis quantifies how much they widen the range of outcomes.

Team capacity and ramp

New teams and unfamiliar tech raise failure rates. Incertive shows how capacity assumptions affect your real odds.

A worked example

Platform rebuild with a fixed launch date

A team commits to rebuilding a core platform in nine months with a fixed launch date, partially defined requirements, and two critical third-party integrations.

47%success probability
CAUTION

Takeaway: Undefined requirements and the two integrations drive most of the risk. Firming up the hardest requirements first and de-risking the integrations early lifts the probability of hitting the date without cutting scope.

Illustrative example. Sign up to run a real analysis on your own project.

Before you commit, know

The probability of delivering on time, on budget, and in scope
Which requirements or integrations most threaten the date
How realistic the estimates are under uncertainty
Whether phasing or de-scoping is statistically stronger

Know before you commit

Get a success probability, the top risks, and the highest-impact improvements for your project — in under 60 seconds.

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