Know your launch odds before you commit the budget
Most new products miss their targets. Incertive models the uncertainty in your launch plan and returns a success probability, the risks that most threaten it, and the highest-impact ways to improve your odds before you commit.
of new CPG products are still on the market two years after launch
Source: Nielsen, via FoodNavigatorWhat Incertive quantifies for these projects
Market demand uncertainty
Demand forecasts are routinely over-optimistic. Incertive models demand as a range so your launch plan reflects the real odds, not a best case.
Timing and competitive risk
A slipped date or a competitor move can sink a launch. A sensitivity analysis ranks which timing risks most threaten the outcome.
Manufacturing and supply readiness
Lead times and supply constraints are common launch failure points. The analysis quantifies how they affect your probability of a clean launch.
Channel and marketing execution
Channel saturation and marketing ramp drive real-world adoption. Incertive shows how execution assumptions move your odds.
A worked example
New product into a competitive category
A team plans a launch into a crowded category with an aggressive date, a single manufacturing source, and an optimistic demand forecast.
Takeaway: The optimistic demand forecast and single-source supply drive most of the risk. Adding a backup supplier and stress-testing the demand assumption move the launch from a coin flip to a favorable bet.
Illustrative example. Sign up to run a real analysis on your own project.
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