Quantify the odds before you sanction a major capital project
Large capital projects have a poor track record on cost, schedule, and delivered benefits. Incertive stress-tests your plan against thousands of scenarios and returns a success probability, the risks driving overruns, and where to focus before the investment is sanctioned.
megaprojects run over budget; overruns above 50% in real terms are not uncommon
Source: Bent Flyvbjerg, Oxford (2017)average cost overrun on large rail projects, with demand overestimated by 51.4%
Source: McKinseyWhat Incertive quantifies for these projects
Cost overrun exposure
Capital projects overrun far more often than not. Incertive quantifies how likely you are to breach the budget — and the realistic size of the overrun.
Schedule and interface risk
Long durations and many interfaces compound delay risk. A sensitivity analysis ranks which milestones and dependencies most threaten the date.
Benefit and demand shortfall
Forecast demand and benefits are routinely over-optimistic. The analysis models them as ranges so the business case reflects real uncertainty.
Financing and stakeholder risk
Financing terms, approvals, and stakeholder alignment widen the range of outcomes. Incertive shows how much they move your odds.
A worked example
Large facility expansion, multi-year program
A firm sanctions a multi-year facility expansion with several major work packages, external financing, and an optimistic benefit case.
Takeaway: Interface risk between work packages and the optimistic benefit case drive most of the downside. Firming up the benefit assumptions and adding schedule contingency at the critical interfaces materially improves the sanctioned business case.
Illustrative example. Sign up to run a real analysis on your own project.
Before you commit, know
Know before you commit
Get a success probability, the top risks, and the highest-impact improvements for your project — in under 60 seconds.
Evaluate My Project