Know if your build will hit budget and schedule — before you break ground
Large construction projects routinely run long and over budget. Incertive stress-tests your plan against thousands of scenarios and returns a success probability, the risks driving overruns, and the changes that most improve your odds.
how far over budget large construction projects run on average — and about 20% longer than scheduled
Source: McKinsey Global Instituteaverage cost overrun across 500+ major projects; schedule delays averaged 52%
Source: McKinsey (2024)What Incertive quantifies for these projects
Schedule and weather variability
Sequencing, permitting, and weather delays compound. Incertive models them as distributions, not a single optimistic date, so you see the real range of completion dates.
Budget and change-order exposure
Material price swings, scope changes, and rework are quantified — revealing how likely you are to breach the budget and by how much.
Subcontractor and supply-chain dependency
Late trades and long-lead materials are among the highest-leverage risks. A sensitivity analysis ranks which ones move the outcome most.
A worked example
Mid-size commercial build, 14-month schedule
A developer plans a $12M commercial build with an aggressive 14-month schedule, two long-lead material packages, and a first-time GC relationship.
Takeaway: Long-lead procurement and the aggressive schedule drive most of the downside. Ordering the two critical packages early and adding a four-week float lifts the modeled success probability into the 60s — before any change to the budget.
Illustrative example. Sign up to run a real analysis on your own project.
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