Free Tool

Estimate Your Project's
Success Probability

Answer 5 questions. Get a data-driven probability estimate in seconds — free, no signup required.

Question 1 of 5

What type of project is this?

Question 2 of 5

How would you describe your project budget?

Significantly under-fundedTight but workableAdequate for the planWell-funded with contingency

Question 3 of 5

How aggressive is your timeline?

Very aggressive — little room for delaysSomewhat tight — some flexibilityRealistic — adequate time built inComfortable — low timeline pressure

Question 4 of 5

How experienced is your team with this type of project?

First time — no prior experienceSome experience — 1–2 similar projectsExperienced — multiple similar projectsVeteran team — deep expertise

Question 5 of 5

Which risk factors apply to your project?

Select all that apply. Leave blank if none apply.

Relying on new or unproven technologyVendors are remote or offshoreRegulatory approvals requiredProject scope is not fully definedMultiple system integrations neededNo dedicated change management planFirst-time relationships with key vendors

Answer questions 1–4 to unlock your result.

Go Further

For a Rigorous, Full Analysis

Incertive runs a real Monte Carlo simulation — not a scoring model. Here's what you get that this calculator cannot provide:

5,000 simulated scenarios

Every run samples from probability distributions across all your variables — revealing outcomes you wouldn't think to model manually.

Top risk drivers identified

A sensitivity analysis shows which variables have the highest leverage on your outcome, so you know where to focus mitigation effort.

Full probability distribution

See the entire range of possible outcomes — not just a single number — so you can set realistic expectations with stakeholders.

What-if scenario modeling

Instantly see how adding budget, extending the timeline, or changing vendors shifts your probability of success.

Go/No-Go verdict with confidence

A statistically grounded recommendation with explicit assumptions — not gut feel or a simplified checklist.

Shareable results

Export a clear, presentation-ready summary you can share with executives, investors, or your board.

Get My Full Monte Carlo Analysis

Results in under 60 seconds. No technical background required.

Explore More

Go/No-Go Calculator Success Probability Feature Our Methodology How It Works Platform Overview

Estimate Your Project'sSuccess Probability

How is this calculated?