Platform
Platform Features
Incertive combines Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, and decision intelligence into a platform that turns uncertainty into actionable insight. Every feature is designed to help you make better decisions when the outcome is not guaranteed.
Probability Distribution
See the full range of possible outcomes for any decision, not just the expected case. Understand the odds of success, break-even, and loss across thousands of simulated scenarios.
Learn more →
Tornado Diagram
Identify which uncertain variables matter most to your outcome. Focus your attention and resources on the factors that actually drive whether your decision succeeds or fails.
Learn more →
Success Probability
Get a clear probability of your decision meeting its objectives. Not a vague "likely" or "risky" - an actual percentage based on realistic modeling of your uncertainties.
Learn more →
Plan Variants
Compare alternative approaches to the same decision, each with its own probability profile. See which variant offers the best risk-adjusted outcome for your situation.
Learn more →
Go/No-Go Verdict
Receive a probability-backed recommendation on whether to proceed, along with the key conditions that would change the answer. A decision input, not a decision replacement.
Learn more →
Uncertainty Identification
Incertive automatically identifies the uncertain variables in your decision description and asks you to confirm or adjust the ranges. No statistical expertise required.
Learn more →
Calibration Tracking
Track how your uncertainty estimates compare to actual outcomes over time. Improve your judgment and make better estimates on future decisions.
Learn more →
Platform Overview
See how all features work together in the end-to-end decision analysis workflow. From plain-language input to probability-backed recommendations.
View platform →
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes Incertive different from other analytics platforms?
Most analytics platforms help you understand what happened in the past. Incertive helps you understand what could happen in the future. It uses Monte Carlo simulation to model the range of possible outcomes for any decision, showing you probability distributions instead of single-point forecasts. This is the difference between "we forecast $2 million in revenue" and "there is a 70% probability that revenue falls between $1.4 million and $2.8 million."
Do I need to understand statistics to use these features?
No. You describe your decision in plain language, and Incertive handles the statistical modeling. The features are designed to present complex analysis in intuitive formats - probability percentages, ranked factor lists, side-by-side plan comparisons. If you can describe what you are uncertain about, you can use every feature on the platform.
Can I use individual features without using the full platform?
The features work together as part of the decision analysis workflow. When you describe a decision, Incertive automatically generates the probability distribution, sensitivity analysis, plan variants, and go/no-go verdict. You do not need to configure each feature separately - they are all part of the output you receive for every decision you analyze.
How accurate is the Monte Carlo simulation?
The accuracy depends on the quality of your input ranges. Monte Carlo simulation does not predict the future - it shows you the range of possible outcomes given your assumptions about uncertainty. If your ranges are realistic, the output gives you a reliable map of what could happen. The calibration tracking feature helps you improve your ranges over time by comparing your estimates to actual outcomes.
How long does it take to get results?
Most decisions can be described and analyzed within 15 to 30 minutes. You describe the decision, confirm the uncertain variables and their ranges, and Incertive runs the simulation. Results are available within seconds of submitting the analysis. You can then adjust assumptions and re-run as many times as needed.
Explore More
See the Features in Action
Describe any decision and get probability distributions, sensitivity analysis, plan variants, and a go/no-go recommendation - all in minutes.
Get Started